Predicting Recurrence of Vasovagal Syncope: A Simple Risk Score for the Clinical Routine
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BACKGROUND: Predictors for recurrence of syncope are lacking in patients with vasovagal syncope. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for recurrence of syncope and develop a simple prognostic risk score of clinical value. METHODS: Two hundred seventy-six patients with a history of vasovagal syncope were prospectively followed for 2 years. Diagnosis of vasovagal syncope was based on clinical history and negative standard work-up. Inclusion in the study was independent from the result of the head-up tilt test, which was performed in all cases. Risk factors for syncope recurrence were evaluated by the Cox proportional hazards regression model and implemented in a risk score, which was validated with the log-rank test and an internal cross-validation. RESULTS: The Cox-regression analysis identified the number of previous syncopal events, history of bronchial asthma, and female gender as predictors for syncope recurrence (all P < 0.05). In contrast, head-up tilt test response had no predictive value (P = 0.881). Developing a risk score, study patients were identified as having high (recurrence rate during 2 years of follow-up: 37.2%), intermediate (24.8%), and low (6.5%) risk for syncope recurrence (receiver operating characteristic [ROC] of score 0.83, P < 0.01; Log-rank test for event-free survival, P < 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with vasovagal syncope, risk of recurrence can be stratified and is predictable based on a simple risk score.
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