Predictors of Success in a Graduate, Entry-Level Professional Program: From Admissions to Graduation

INTRODUCTION: Admission to health professional programs (HPPs) in Canada is competitive. The purpose of this study is to evaluate how factors identifiable by the admissions package may predict incidences of academic concerns in one physiotherapy program in Canada. REVIEW OF LITERATURE: Previous literature has identified many concepts that contribute to "academic success." Some HPPs have investigated if admissions criteria can predict students' academic performance. However, this has not been reported in physiotherapy programs in Canada. SUBJECTS: Study data included candidates' admissions' metrics and physiotherapy students' program data for 4 graduating cohorts, who were admitted from 2016 to 2019 inclusive ( N = 256). METHODS: A retrospective, nonconcurrent cohort study was used to estimate the relationship between applicant's admissions data and students' program data pertaining to academic success. Data were summarized as frequencies for categorical variables and means for continuous variables. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) and probabilities of an academic or professional concern for standard scores. Significance was set at P < .05. RESULTS: Cohorts participating in the multiple mini-interview (MMI) had an academic concern incidence of 14/131. The virtual MMI (VMMI) cohort had an incidence of 7/125. Students with higher MMI scores were less likely to have an academic concern (OR = 0.52 [95% CI: 0.30-0.89, P = .017]). Grade point average was not significantly associated with an academic concern when combined with either MMI or VMMI ( P s > 0.05). Admissions round offer was also significantly associated with an academic concern (OR = 2.48 [95% CI: 1.00-6.12, P = .049]), with those beyond the initial round of offers having increased risk of concerns. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Results of the study reflect the generally low event rates for incidences of academic concerns and the relative homogeneity and range restriction of independent variables across the 4 cohorts of students. HPP's reflection on current admissions processes and ability to identify opportunities for change in admission processes helps ensure that programs are selecting candidates who are likely to succeed.