Where have all the flowers gone? A systematic evaluation of factors driving native terrestrial plant decline in North America

Prior to the arrival of Europeans in North America, forest and grasslands individually covered a 3rd of the conterminous United States; however, following the colonial and pioneer periods, respectively, these land cover categories were reduced to 70% and 50% of their original prominence. The dominant driving force for native land conversion was agriculture, which expanded exponentially from the Atlantic to the Pacific, comprising over half the total land area of America at its peak in 1950. However, farmland area has subsequently declined by 25%, so what has been driving native plant declines north of the 30th latitudinal parallel over the past 75 years? Analysis of recovery plans issued by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service indicates that of the over 900 plant species “listed” as threatened and endangered the primary driver of decline was invasive species, followed by habitat alteration, and development, which collectively accounted for 93.2% of the primary drivers for listed species. In Canada, these three drivers of decline were the primary drivers for 81% of listed species. Comparatively, herbicides were identified as the primary or secondary driver in 13 out of 1124 cases (1.2%). Given that agricultural land area is contracting in the U.S. and Canada, there appears to be a misconception that agrochemicals are the seminal cause of native plant decline. Here, we explore the individual contribution of drivers relative to the historical events of North America to provide context and perspective as well as focus and prioritize conservation efforts accordingly.