Causal effects of teleconnection patterns on soil moisture through different climate paths over the Greater Horn of Africa

Soil moisture is undoubtably a vital variable of the climate system. Understanding the interactions among atmosphere, climate, and soil is necessary for water resource management, drought monitoring, and disaster prevention. However, evaluation of those interactions so far primarily focused on typical correlation analysis which often fail to imply causal relationship due to autocorrelation and high dimensionality within time series variables. …