Waste-pathogen combinations from land-spreading for a farm-to-fork QMRA of public health in Ireland
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AbstractRecent reports highlight the importance of assessing public health and food safety risks via land-spreading of organic wastes (i.e., biofertilisers) in Ireland. Accordingly, this study established a modular framework for farm-to-fork quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) of targeted waste-pathogen combinations (W-PCs) due to land-spreading. Assessments will also consider resultant cross-contamination of soil, livestock, water, and crops (i.e., One Health approach). A scoping review of the scientific literature was undertaken, employing search strings of relevant terms relating to enteric pathogens in land-spread animal manures and biosolids. The primary eligibility criterion was “spatial relevance” (i.e., Ireland and western Europe). Directed graphical model chains were developed, incorporating both stochastic model parameters and inherent uncertainty and variability associated with model inputs. Mixed effects meta-analyses, likelihood ratio testing, and stepwise multivariate regression were used to pool estimates from extracted farm-level datasets (i.e., harmonisation, weighting, and density function fitting for target pathogen prevalence and concentration). Identified priority W-PCs based on Irish environmental prevalence and epidemiological data were: bovine slurry (BS)-STEC O157/O26, BS-Cryptosporidium parvum, biosolids-noroviruses GI and GII, and broiler litter-Campylobacter jejuni. All distributed baseline prevalence meta-models included: pooled estimates ranging 0.13-0.43, SE ranging 0.04-0.06 (for p ranging <0.0001-0.009, respectively), and bioclimatic indicators, temperature and precipitation seasonality (for p ranging <0.0001-0.01, respectively), explaining 34.91%-54.75% of heterogeneity (system variance). The directed graphical model chains, pooled analyses, and fitted distributions for identified W-PCs provide the first modular framework for spatially explicit QMRA of land-spreading in the Republic of Ireland.Acknowledgements DAFM R2021453Key messages• The modular framework provides the tools to assess the public health and food safety risks of land-spread biofertilisers in Ireland.• This is the first modular framework for spatially explicit QMRA of land-spreading in the Republic of Ireland.
