Recovery Potential Assessment for Lake Sturgeon in Canadian Designatable Units

Abstract Significant declines in the abundance of lake sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens across most of its North American range have led to abundances less than 10% of estimated minimum sustainable population sizes and, in some locations, less than 1% of historic abundances. These precipitous declines in abundance have resulted in most lake sturgeon populations being considered a conservation concern and have prompted management actions toward recovery. Here we present modeling in support of a recovery potential assessment, using stage-structured matrix models and population viability analysis to quantitatively assess allowable harm, recovery efforts, probabilities of recovery, and recovery time frames. From this assessment, we conclude that lake sturgeon populations are most sensitive to harm on adult survival and that some designatable units are highly sensitive to any level of harm. However, the scope for recovering lake sturgeon by improving adult survival is limited; instead, larger proportional increases in population growth rates can be achieved by focusing recovery efforts on age-0 and juvenile survival. Finally, based on a recovery target of 1,188 spawning females/year for each discrete population and current abundances from 1% to 10% of this target, long-term projections indicate recovery time frames ranging from 20 to over 100 years, depending on the recovery actions implemented.