Population viability and perturbation analyses to support recovery of imperilled Eastern Sand Darter (Ammocrypta pellucida)

Abstract Small‐bodied freshwater fishes are often understudied, with the result that data gaps create uncertainties that can complicate and constrain conservation strategies aimed at species recovery. Use of matrix models and perturbation population viability analyses (PVA) are ideally suited for use in studying the consequences of life‐history parameter variation and environmental stochasticity to better understand the fate of threatened small‐bodied fishes. We use data for Eastern Sand Darter ( Ammocrypta pellucida) populations from the Thames River, Canada, to explore the consequences of life‐history uncertainties such as age at maturation, multiple clutch sizes and age‐specific fertility for population recovery in this species. Environmental stochasticity acting on all life‐history parameters was found to pose significant risks for the continued viability of lower Thames River populations, with significant chances of local extinction predicted under current conditions. The intrinsic rate of population increase was most sensitive to 0+ survival rates, clutch size and clutch number. As demonstrated here, population models can successfully provide a means of exploring the population dynamics of small‐bodied fishes and can inform managers of risks posed by factors acting on life‐history parameters to affect continued population viability. Management actions for Eastern Sand Darter should focus on strategies designed to ensure successful spawning and improvement of 0+ survival rates, through programmes aimed at the protection, enhancement or recovery of additional spawning and juvenile rearing habitats.