Watershed characteristics and chemical properties govern methyl mercury concentrations within headwater streams of boreal forests in Ontario, Canada

Methyl mercury (MeHg) concentrations in boreal headwater streams are influenced by complex natural processes and disturbances such as forestry management. Understanding drivers of MeHg within boreal streams in Ontario, Canada, is of particular interest as there are legacy MeHg concerns. However, models accounting for the complexity of underlying processes have not yet been developed. We assessed how catchment characteristics and stream water chemistry influence MeHg concentrations within 19 watersheds of the Dryden - Wabigoon Forest in Ontario, Canada, using a structural equation modelling (SEM) approach. Despite the study area encompassing a large variation of boreal forest watersheds in the Canadian Shield, our SEM had substantial explanatory power across the region (χ²₅₁ = 45.37, p-value = 0.70, R² = 0.75). Nitrate concentrations (p-value <0.001), water temperature (p-value = 0.002), and the latent watershed characteristic (p-value <0.001) had a positive influence on MeHg concentrations once variable interactions were accounted. Due to the inherent strengths of applying an SEM approach, we describe two plausible pathways driving MeHg concentrations: 1) indirect effect of forest-derived nutrients increases in-situ MeHg production in Dryden - Wabigoon Forest streams, and 2) direct supply of MeHg from inundated soils following consistent precipitation and inundation events (i.e., fill, sit, and spill).