Impacts of temperature and rainfall variation on rice productivity in major ecosystems of Bangladesh

BackgroundInconsistency in climate regimes of rainfall and temperature is a source of biotic and abiotic stresses in agricultural systems worldwide. Several studies from Bangladesh report that this variability is a cause of poor yield potential and crop failure. This study investigates the impact of temperature and rainfall variation on rice productivity for different ecosystems in Bangladesh. Three ecosystems under investigation include: dry (Rajshahi), terrace (Mymensingh) and coastal (Barisal).ResultsThe terrace ecosystem recorded the highest rainfall, followed by coastal and dry ecosystems. The temperature variation, both maximum and minimum, showed an increasing trend; however, the incremental rate was higher in case of minimum temperature. Monsoon rainfall showed an increasing trend, while dry season (November to March) decreased slightly. The climatic variations and impacts were captured using a standardized precipitation index (SPI), diurnal temperature range (DTR) and rice productivity index (RPI). The rainfed rice crop (aman) observed a significant trend between RPI and seasonal SPI, and between RPI and seasonal DTR. Overall, the SPI indicated the prevalence of frequent dry and wet periods and DTR recorded a decreasing trend. The multiple regression analysis identified a significant correlation between RPI, SPI and DTR accounting for 41, 45 and 49% of yield variability in dry, terrace and coastal ecosystems, respectively.ConclusionRainfall has shifted with an increasing trend during monsoon and almost static during other seasons. Rice production, especially rainfed rice, is at risk due to frequent drought and decreasing DTR. Stress-tolerant rice varieties requiring less irrigation water and survive at high temperature should be introduced. Research on rescheduling crop calendar and cropping pattern is necessary to mitigate the adverse climatic conditions.