An empirically derived new product project selection model

The idea screening stage or R&D project selection decision is a deficient decision area in the new product process. Most quantitative and economic models focus on the commercialization stages, while idea screening models are largely speculative and arbitrary. This paper presents an empirically derived and validated new product screening model. Typical screening variables were measured for each of 195 actual new product projects. Thirteen dimensions were found to describe the screening domain. A multiple regression model was derived from the data, and when validated using a cross-split-half method, yielded a predictive accuracy of 84 percent.