Medium-Term Increases in Ambient Grass Pollen Between 1994-1999 and 2016-2020 in a Subtropical Climate Zone

Grass pollen is the major outdoor trigger of allergic respiratory diseases. Climate change is influencing pollen seasonality in Northern Hemisphere temperate regions, but many aspects of the effects on grass pollen remain unclear. Carbon dioxide and temperature rises could increase the distribution of subtropical grasses, however, medium term shifts in grass pollen in subtropical climates have not yet been analysed. This study investigates changes in grass pollen aerobiology in a subtropical city of Brisbane, Australia, between the two available monitoring periods, 1994-1999 and 2016-2020. Potential drivers of pollen change were examined including weather and satellite-derived vegetation indicators. The magnitude of the seasonal pollen index for grass showed almost a three-fold increase for 2016-2020 over 1994-1999. The number and proportion of high and extreme grass pollen days in the recent period increased compared to earlier monitoring. Statistically significant changes were also identified for distributions of CO₂, satellite-derived seasonal vegetation health indices, and daily maximum temperatures, but not for minimum temperatures, daily rainfall, or seasonal fraction of green groundcover. Quarterly grass pollen levels were correlated with corresponding vegetation health indices, and with green groundcover fraction, suggesting that seasonal-scale plant health was higher in the latter period. The magnitude of grass pollen exposure in the subtropical region of Brisbane has increased markedly in the recent past, posing an increased environmental health threat. This study suggests the need for continuous pollen monitoring to track and respond to the possible effects of climate change on grass pollen loads.