Locations, Commitments and Activity Spaces

This paper argues the case, that self-selection effects are pervasive in spatial and transport-related decision making. This argument is not new, but the recent interest in appropriate models of change and of daily behaviour under constraints brings it to forefront of interest again. Using descriptive examples and two choice models (set of mobility tools of a household and housing location choice) the paper demonstrates these effects empirically. While the statistically proper solution is the development of self-selection models, which make the decisions about the constraints endogenous to the system, this strategy is difficult in this context due to the long time-horizons/long histories of the relevant decisions. In this paper the constraints were described with variables reflecting those previous decisions. In the model of the mobility tool choice: housing location (type of location, distance to nearest public transport stop; housing costs; distances to work and shopping); in the model of residential choice: distance to previous residential location, type of previous location, distances to work and education). All are significant and have the expected signs.