On-demand ride hailing as publicly subsidized mobility: An empirical case study of Innisfil Transit

This empirical case study examines Innisfil Transit, a partnership between Uber and the low-density, rural Town of Innisfil, Ontario. Innisfil Transit subsidizes on-demand ride-hailing trips starting or ending within the town limits as an alternative to fixed-route transit. The Innisfil Transit program underwent multiple policy changes, providing an opportunity to learn about the links between program design (e.g. presence of fixed fare destinations, ride subsidies, and monthly limits) and ridership. This study has access to unique ridership data provided by Uber for the Town of Innisfil between 2016 and early 2020. Using descriptive statistics, cross sectional models, and panel models, this study explores the predictors of ridership and growth between 2016 and 2020 as a function of spatial, socioeconomic, and policy-related variables. Results indicate that program design (most critically – the presence of fixed fare destinations) has strong impacts both on the distribution of ridership and its growth over time, but that the allocative impact on total ridership across the town is unclear. Findings from this paper indicate that transit managers and council members of small communities considering subsidized on-demand ride hailing as an alternative to fixed-route transit should think carefully about what the program goals are and who is likely to benefit most.