Insights into the future of telework in Canada: Modeling the trajectory of telework across a pandemic

With the acceleration of pandemic-induced teleworking, understanding the longer-term outlook for telework is critical to shape the sustainability and success of cities. This study uses data from a 2021 survey of Canadians aged 18–75 in six major metropolitan areas to explore employed Canadians’ changes in teleworking before the COVID-19 pandemic, during the pandemic, in the fall of 2021, and in ‘ideal’ circumstances. Descriptive findings indicate that while non-teleworkers remain half of the employed population, most teleworking growth has been among individuals teleworking five-plus days per week. Among full-time workers, the estimated commuting mode share of teleworking increased from 7.4% (pre-pandemic) to 19.8% during the pandemic and may be approximately 16.9% under stated ‘ideal’ circumstances. Based on ordered logit model results, telework, as an adaptation strategy, appears to have changed– particularly for individuals with health-related mobility challenges, households with children, and between men and women. For full-time employees (but not part-time employees), telework appears not to offset auto-orientation – leaving questions about the longer-term sustainability of telework. Growth in telework has been concentrated and understanding these sub-markets and the implications of consequent travel behavior changes will be critical towards exploring changing urban trajectories as cities move past the pandemic.