Computer simulations of terrestrial carbon and atmospheric interactions Academic Article uri icon

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abstract

  • Terrestrial carbon modelling shows that the Goudriaan and Ketner and Esser simulations fit historical data well, but the results are sensitive to the decomposition rate coefficient of old sediment carbon. Modification of this rate constant over time, weighted by emission increases or linear increases, changes the model results to fit historic ice core data. Very old sediment carbon decomposition has an effect on the model postdictions only when the rate constant is 10 times greater than that predicted from sediment studies. Future estimates show that a maximum change from agriculture to forest has a small effect on abating emission increases. Controlling emission rates at 5.1 x 10(15) g C/a will result in almost a 50% increase in atmospheric CO(2) in 200 years, and reducing emission rates to 1960 levels (approximately 2.5 x 10(15) g C/a) immediately will still result in an increase in atmospheric CO(2).

publication date

  • 1994