China's Terrestrial Carbon Sink Over 2010–2015 Constrained by Satellite Observations of Atmospheric CO2 and Land Surface Variables

Abstract The magnitude and distribution of China's terrestrial carbon sink remain uncertain due to insufficient constraints at large scales, whereby satellite data offer great potential for reducing the uncertainty. Here, we present two carbon sink estimates for China constrained either by satellite CO 2 column concentrations (XCO 2 ) within the Global Carbon Assimilation System or by remotely sensed soil moisture and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) in addition to in situ CO 2 observations within the Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System. They point to a moderate size of carbon sinks of 0.34 ± 0.14 (mean ± unc.) and 0.43 ± 0.09 PgC/yr during 2010–2015, which are supported by an inventory‐based estimate for forest and soil carbon sink (0.26 PgC/yr) and fall in the range of contemporary ensemble atmospheric inversions (0.25–0.48 PgC/yr). They also agree reasonably well on interannual variations, which reflect the carbon sink anomalies induced by regional droughts in southwest China. Furthermore, their spatial distributions are broadly consistent that of the forest inventory‐based estimate, indicating that the largest carbon sinks locate in central and eastern China. Their estimates for forest carbon sink coincide fairly well with the inventory‐based estimate across different regions, especially when aggregated to the north and south of China. Although enhanced recently by afforestation, China's carbon sink was also significantly weakened by regional droughts, which were often not fully represented in previous in situ CO 2 ‐based inversions due to insufficient observations. Our results suggest that satellite‐based atmospheric CO 2 and land surface observations are vital in characterizing terrestrial net carbon fluxes at regional scales. Plain Language Summary Limited by available in situ CO 2 observations, the size and geographical distribution of China's terrestrial carbon sink remain not well known, whereby satellite observations offer great potential for improving the situation. In this study, we estimate the carbon sink of China from either satellite CO 2 column concentrations (XCO 2 ) or remotely sensed land surface variables in addition to in situ CO 2 observations. They point to a moderate size of carbon sinks of 0.34 ± 0.14 (mean ± unc.) and 0.43 ± 0.09 PgC/yr during 2010–2015. The size of China's carbon sink estimate is supported by an inventory‐based estimate for forest and soil carbon sink (0.26 PgC/yr) and in line with contemporary atmospheric inversions (0.25–0.48 PgC/yr). They can detect the carbon sink anomalies induced by regional droughts in southwest China. Their estimates for forest carbon sink coincide fairly well with the inventory‐based estimate across different regions, especially when aggregated to the north and south of China. China's carbon sink was significantly weakened by regional droughts, which were often not fully represented in previous in situ CO 2 ‐based inversions because of lacking observations. This study demonstrates that satellite‐based atmospheric CO 2 and land surface observations are vital in characterizing terrestrial net carbon fluxes at regional scales. Key Points Two estimates of China's recent carbon flux constrained by different satellite observations consistently reveal a moderate carbon sink The two satellite‐based data assimilation systems point to a largely reduced carbon uptake in southwest China due to droughts Their estimates for forest carbon sink coincide fairly well with the inventory‐based estimate across different regions