Predicting warming-induced hypoxic stress for fish in a fragmented river channel using ecosystem metabolism models

Aquatic biota often face multiple anthropogenic threats such as river fragmentation and climate change that can contribute to high rates of aquatic species imperilment world-wide. Temperature-induced hypoxia is one under-explored mechanism that can threaten aquatic species in fragmented rivers with reduced flows. We applied ecosystem metabolism models to define the effect of water temperature on net ecosystem production (NEP) of oxygen at 12 sites of a fragmented river channel that supports three fish species at risk and experiences hypoxia. We found that water temperature and precipitation events at 75% of our sites were significantly and negatively correlated to NEP estimates and explained 28% of the variation in NEP within sites. Temperature-induced reductions in NEP at these sites likely contributed to hypoxic conditions threatening the three species at risk as NEP explained 41% of the variation in dissolved oxygen near all sites. Our results have applications for understanding drivers of hypoxic stress in fragmented watercourses, integrating water temperature–NEP effects with oxygen demands of sensitive fish species, and modeling future effects of climate change on aquatic species.