Methods of Risks Estimation and Analysis of Business Processes

Abstract In the paper the model of business processes of a data‐flow type and operations above them are entered into reviewing. The methods of the analysis of business processes on effectiveness are offered. The methods of an risk estimation and analysis of business processes are considered also. The task of risk estimation and using it on practice in managing economic systems with using processing approach is investigated. Conditional‐internal and conditional‐external risks are considered and proved their properties. Metrics of risks estimation are given as highest comparative and absolute losses, average losses etc. Inefficiency of using risk estimation procedures by dispersion and quantiles is shown. Approaches to the business‐processes indicators optimization proposed and investigated in the area “risk‐profit” (“risk‐indicator”). This optimization is realized by using utility function as multicriterion problem. Functional, stochastic dependences between risks are shown, that do not allow to optimize risks only (separate from indicators). The task of risk managing in economic systems is work out in complex with the tasks of it's analysis, modeling and optimization. The problem of factor analysis in deterministic form is investigated too.