Predicting Return to Work After Low Back Injury Using the Psychosocial Risk for Occupational Disability Instrument: A Validation Study

Introduction: This paper reports on the predictive validity of a Psychosocial Risk for Occupational Disability Scale in the workers’ compensation environment using a paper and pencil version of a previously validated multimethod instrument on a new, subacute sample of workers with low back pain. Methods: A cohort longitudinal study design with a randomly selected cohort off work for 4–6 weeks was applied. The questionnaire was completed by 111 eligible workers at 4–6 weeks following injury. Return to work status data at three months was obtained from 100 workers. Sixty-four workers had returned to work (RTW) and 36 had not (NRTW). Results: Stepwise backward elimination resulted in a model with these predictors: Expectations of Recovery, SF-36 Vitality, SF-36 Mental Health, and Waddell Symptoms. The correct classification of RTW/NRTW was 79%, with sensitivity (NRTW) of 61% and specificity (RTW) of 89%. The area under the ROC curve was 84%. Conclusions. New evidence for predictive validity for the Psychosocial Risk-for-Disability Instrument was provided. Implications: The instrument can be useful and practical for prediction of return to work outcomes in the subacute stage after low back injury in the workers’ compensation context.