DISCRIMINATORY ANALYSIS OF URBAN GROWTH PATTERNS IN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, 1951–1961

In urban research to date, the distinguishing characteristics of growing as opposed to stable or declining urban communities have not been identified clearly. In this study, a statistical discrimination is made between those cities in Ontario and Quebec which experienced absolute upward shifts in population over the decade 1951–61, and those which experienced either absolute or relative downward shifts. The discrimination is based on a number of selected social, demographic, economic, and locational variables. In addition, by focussing upon the provinces of Ontario and Quebec which are known to have contrasting cultures and economies, the study seeks to determine whether these regional differences are reflected in the relative growth characteristics of the cities. Shifts upward and downward for groups of cities were distinguished, but the regional contrasts overshadowed the generalized patterns of growth or decline to the end that it is clear that general studies of urban growth and decline will need to employ models incorporating built-in accommodations for regional sub-systems of cities.