Comparative evaluation of the effects of climate and land-cover changes on hydrologic responses of the Muskeg River, Alberta, Canada

Study region The Muskeg River Basin located in the Oil-Sands region of northern Alberta, Canada. Study focus An integrated modelling framework, which combines a process-based distributed hydrologic model with a dynamic land-cover simulation model is used to evaluate the effects of climate and land-cover changes on the hydrological regime in the basin. Land-cover types corresponding to three hypothetical levels of future industrial expansion are synthesized based on the current lease holdings for the Oil-Sands development in the region. An ensemble of hydrologic simulations based on multiple climate-change projections is performed with future land-cover scenarios during a baseline (1980–2010) and two future (2050s and 2080s) periods. The effects of climate and land-cover changes are quantified through various hydrologic indicators using a range of variability approach. New hydrological insights for the region Analysis of the relative contribution of inter-annual climate variability and land-cover change to the historical streamflow demonstrates the necessity to consider both in evaluating future water availability in the basin. Results indicate that modification to evapotranspiration rates caused from land-cover change affect spring and summer flows. Wetter and warmer conditions in the projected climate are found to increase spring and winter streamflows. Sensitivity analysis of the hydrologic indicators computed from the simulated flows shows that land-cover change may play a larger role in affecting the hydrologic regime than climate change, except that of spring runoff.