Predictors of 1-year mortality in adult lung transplant recipients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundUpon surviving the first year post-lung transplantation, recipients can expect a median survival of 8 years. Within the first year, graft failure and multi-organ failure (possibly secondary to graft failure) are common causes of mortality. To better understand the prognosis within the first year, we plan on conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies addressing the association between the patient, donor, and transplant operative factors and graft loss 1-year post-lung transplant.MethodsWe searched MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register, and PubMed supplemental for non-MEDLINE records for observational studies identifying independent risk factors for early mortality (1 year) in adult lung transplant recipients. We plan on including cohort studies and secondary analyses of randomized controlled trials studying adult lung transplant recipients undergoing their first lung transplant, without any simultaneous organ transplant. We will conduct a random-effects meta-analysis that pools the effect estimates from all eligible studies to obtain a summary estimate and confidence interval for all independent non-therapeutic factors identified in the primary studies.DiscussionThe results from this study may inform future guidelines on the selection of candidates and donors for transplantation and predictive model development and inform the decision-making process that the physician and patient undertake together. Furthermore, through the conduction of this review, we can identify the limitations with the current best evidence, which will encourage the need for studies with a better methodology to reassess the predictors of mortality.