Adaptation to a novel predator in Drosophila melanogaster: How well are we able to predict evolutionary responses?

Abstract Evolutionary theory is sufficiently well developed to allow for short-term prediction of evolutionary trajectories. In addition to the presence of heritable variation, prediction requires knowledge of the form of natural selection on relevant traits. While many studies estimate the form of natural selection, few examine the degree to which traits evolve in the predicted direction. In this study we examine the form of natural selection imposed by mantid predation on wing size and shape in the fruitfly, Drosophila melanogaster . We then evolve populations of D. melanogaster under predation pressure, and examine the extent to which wing size and shape have responded in the predicted direction. We demonstrate that wing form partially evolves along the predicted vector from selection, more so than for control lineages. Furthermore, we re-examined phenotypic selection after ∼30 generations of experimental evolution. We observed that the magnitude of selection on wing size and shape was diminished in populations evolving with mantid predators, while the direction of the selection vector differed from that of the ancestral population for shape. We discuss these findings in the context of the predictability of evolutionary responses, and the need for fully multivariate approaches.