Journal article
Measles as a case study in nonlinear forecasting and chaos
Abstract
This paper uses measles incidence in developed countries as the basis of a case study in nonlinear forecasting and chaos. It uses a combination of epidemiological modelling and nonlinear forecasting to explore a range of issues relating to the predictability of measles before and after the advent of mass vaccination. A comparison of the pre-vaccination self-predictability of measles in England and Wales indicates relatively high predictability …
Authors
Grenfell BT; Kleckzkowski A; Ellner SP; Bolker BM
Journal
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 348, No. 1688, pp. 515–530
Publisher
The Royal Society
Publication Date
September 15, 1994
DOI
10.1098/rsta.1994.0108
ISSN
1364-503X